A new Pentagon report claims that Afghanistan’s security forces aren’t yet ready to protect the country against the Taliban and al Qaeda on their own and will require “substantial training, advising, and assistance, including financial support” after the 2014 transition. The report cites significant progress in the number and quality of Afghan forces in the past two years, but maintains that they’re still heavily dependent on coalition forces in key support areas, such as air operations and logistics. Another report by the United Nations released today cites an alarming 23% rise in civilian casualties in the country in the first six months of 2013 – indicating an increase in Taliban violence and a deterioration of security as Afghan forces are taking the lead from withdrawing US and NATO troops.
The findings of the two reports show that the White House’s withdrawal timelines are at odds with security realities on the ground. About half of the remaining 60,000 American troops will leave Afghanistan by next February. More ominously, the administration says it is considering a complete troop withdrawal if negotiations with the Afghan government over a security agreement are not finalized soon. As I wrote earlier, however, a “zero option” will undo the last decade’s security gains and undercut the effectiveness of US counterterrorism operations in South Asia. Afghanistan may revert to a pre-9/11 situation, where al Qaeda and its affiliates operated with impunity and used the Afghan territory as a launching pad against Western targets.
